Al-Qaida in Iraq: The Numbers Just Don't Add Up

When Mister Bush started his war, Iraq was a nation of some 28 million people. According to the best scientific estimates, the President's war has reduced the population by nearly a million (600,000) souls. Obviously in a country where every hospital is spinning on a wheel of endless violence and where triage is about all health care professionals have time to accomplish, keeping babies alive long enough to replace those lost to bombs and chaos just wouldn't seem possible. Then, too, there are the two million Iraqis who've fled their country because the violence made living impossible. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume there to be 25 million people currently living in Iraq.

Of that 25 million people, the best intelligence estimates -- both U.S. and international agencies -- place the number of Iraq's insurgent forces at approximately 20,000 combatants. Every -- not some, not a few, not most...every -- domestic and international intelligence analysis has determined that the 20,000-strong Iraq insurgency is comprised of approximately two-to-five percent of foreign fighters.

Understand, these are numbers that have NEVER been disputed ... not even by Dick Cheney. Remember, Cheney was the guy who had completely deluded himself into believing everything was going so well in Iraq that he claimed, two years ago, that the insurgency was in its last throes. Not even a person suffering from self-delusion of Cheney's magnitude, has questioned the statistics cited above.

The point is this: Two-to-five percent of 20,000 means that at any onetime, there have only ever been between 400 and 1,000 foreign fighters in Iraq. Realistically speaking, most of the foreigners fighting in Iraq probably migrated there on their own. That is to say, they're just a bunch of guys with hopes of finally getting their chance to take some shots at Americans. But, giving the Bush administration and the new military command, Petraeus et al, the benefit of the doubt, let's consider all 400 to 1,000 foreigners in Iraq to be part of al Qaeda. Let's be very generous, eh? Let's give "Mister 26 Percent President" every advantage.

Mister Bush's latest 'surge' plan is into its fifth month. Again, giving the benefit of the doubt to the Republican President, let's only count four-months-worth of days. That'd be about 120 days. Everyday for those 120 days, the U.S. military command has claimed to have killed or captured between 10 and 30 members of so-called al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (it's okay, who wouldn't smile when saying that...'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia'; think the Bush boys didn't pay a Madison Avenue firm a lot of cash to conjure up that rubbish?). Again, giving the Loyal Bushies every possible advantage, let's say on average the US killed or captured only 10 "al Qaeda" people per-day. That means in the 120 days since the latest 'surge' started, they've captured or killed 1,200 members of "al Qaeda in Mesopotamia."

We won't get into the "new math," which so upsets the average Republican politician that it leads them to call for ending public education. Sticking with good old fashioned 'rithmetic, let's crunch the numbers:

The low end of all estimates of the number of foreign fighters in Iraq was 400. So, 400 less 1,200 captured or killed to date, equals...umm...well, it equals minus 800 (400 - 1,200 = -800).

Hmmm...doesn't seem logical, but let's withhold judgment.

Okay, the high end of all estimates of the number of foreign fighters in Iraq was 1,000. So, 1,000 less 1,200 captured or killed to date, equals...huh...sigh...well, that equals minus 200 (1,000 - 1,200 = -200).

Something isn't quite right, is it?

Having given Mister Bush and the Generals in Iraq the benefit of every doubt, let's just say that they appear to be grossly overstating the presence of "al Qaeda in Mesopotamia," but they know that. They know that all these people they've suddenly decided to label as being members of "al Qaeda," aren't. Nearly every last person they reported as having been members of al Qaeda, have been Iraqi Sunni and Shiite insurgents in the midst of a civil war. But, Mister Bush and his Generals want the American people to believe that Iraq is being overrun by "al Qaeda terrorists," so that they can justify the never-ending continuation of their never-ending war in Iraq.

Think that assessment is too harsh? This is how Marine Corps Officer First Lt. Adam P. Mathes explains, in a memo regarding a reporters inquiry, the importance of labeling Iraq's insurgents as members of al Qaeda:

Reporter's question regarding the Haditha massacre: "Are the marines in this unit still serving in Haditha?"

Mathes' written memo explaining how he believes the question should be addressed: "Yes, we are still fighting terrorists of Al Qaida in Iraq in Haditha. ('Fighting terrorists associated with Al Qaida' is stronger language than 'serving'. The American people will side more with someone actively fighting a terrorist organization that is tied to 9/11 than with someone who is idly 'serving', like in a way one 'serves' a casserole. It's semantics, but in reporting and journalism, words spin the story.)"

They know their numbers don't add up. And, that is giving them the benefit of every doubt.

Note: It is not the intent of this piece to assume the numbers cited above to be exact. Insurgent numbers and percent foreign fighters were taken from actual intelligence estimates. Still, the exact number of foreign fighters, 'al Qaeda' according to Bush et al, killed and present in Iraq are only intended to provide context to the administration and corporate-owned media latest attempt at distorting the facts. There is no question, but that the numbers just don't add up.
source: http://www.progressivedailybeacon.com/more.php?page=opinion&id=1585